Called it on Te Tai Tokerau, 23 April
Me on that date, following the resignation of Shane Jones:
If National made this happen they’re fucking brilliant. Think of all the things that would have to come together.
Sir Wira Gardiner secretly donates to Jones’s leadership campaign. Murray McCully informally sounds Jones out as to whether or not Jones really wants to spend another three years on the Opposition benches with a bunch of pakeha unionists, gay-rights activists, and tree-hugging hippies who hate him and hints that a high-level government job focused on Pacific economic development with a resources-slash-fisheries angle may soon be created if the right candidate could be found. Jones sees the writing on the hull and jumps from the sinking Good Ship Labour, which means that the next candidate off the Labour List gets tapped for a return to Parliament and oh ho ho guess who it is - Kelvin Davis. Kelvin Davis, a by-all-accounts bright talented hetero Maori male who got shafted by the sisterhood for being a bright talented hetero Maori male and who got given an embarrassingly low list position before the last election and who lost his job as a result. Being a lowly-ranked List MP who has already once been fucked by the party Kelvin Davis will feel like his hetero male testicles are on a table next to a pile of hammers unless he can win an electorate seat, and his home seat is oh ho ho it gets even better TE TAI TOKERAU. Which means to have any sort of job security Davis has to defeat Hone Harawira in an electorate race, which means Kelvin Davis has to knock the Mana Party and its parasite Kim Dotcom Party completely out of NZ politics and deprive the Labour Party of an entire coalition partner. Having a bright talented hetero Maori male running on the left in Te Tai Tokerau means that Harawira and Dotcom will be put under a fucking microscope during the election which is something I’m guessing neither of them want to happen. And this is all now a lot easier for Davis because he’s now back in parliament because Shane Jones retired after being offered a job by Murray McCully, and being back in parliament means he gets to run this knock-off-Harawira Te Tai Tokerau electorate campaign with parliamentary funding.
1. Kelvin Davis runs a good campaign with support from Labour and defeats Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau. Mana Party out of Parliament. National laughs.
2. Kelvin Davis loses Te Tai Tokerau when he gets hung out to dry AGAIN by Labour which gives him shitty support in his campaign because they want a possible coalition-partner party in Parliament more than they want a bright talented hetero Maori male on their own team. Labour thus confirms that it a) hates heterosexual males and b) hates Maoris all in one go, thus further pigeonholing itself as an extreme-left party. National laughs.
If McCully (and let’s be honest, he wouldn’t have done this himself, so let’s include John Key) and National actually foresaw these possible outcomes and specifically targeted Jones in order to make them more likely, they have got serious game.
If we were to meet the California Hells Angels of the 1960s
“Any time Uncle Sam, with all his machinery for warfare, is held to a draw by some rice eaters, he’s lost the battle. He had to sign a truce. America’s not supposed to sign a truce. She’s supposed to be bad. But she’s not bad any more. She’s bad as long as she can use her hydrogen bomb, but she can’t use hers for fear Russia might use hers. Russia can’t use hers, for fear that Sam might use his. So, both of them are weapon-less. They can’t use the weapon because each’s weapon nullifies the other’s. So the only place where action can take place is on the ground. And the white man can’t win another war fighting on the ground. Those days are over. The black man knows it, the brown man knows it, the red man knows it, and the yellow man knows it. So they engage him in guerrilla warfare. That’s not his style. You’ve got to have heart to be a guerrilla warrior, and he hasn’t got any heart.”
— Malcolm X, speech at Cory Methodist Church, Cleveland, Ohio (April 3, 1964)
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